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Pimenta, V., Barroso, I., Boitani, L., & Beja, P. (2018). Risks a la carte: Modelling the occurrence and intensity of wolf predation on multiple livestock species. Biol. Conserva., 228, 331–342.
Abstract: Predation on livestock is a source of human-wildlife conflicts and can undermine the conservation of large carnivores. To design effective mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the determinants of predation across livestock species, which often differ in husbandry practices, vulnerability to predators and economic value. Moreover, attention should be given to both predation occurrence and intensity, because these can have different spatial patterns and predictors. We used spatial risk modelling to quantify factors affecting wolf predation on five livestock species in Portugal. Within the 1619 parishes encompassing the entire wolf range in the country, the national wolf compensation scheme recorded 17,670 predation events in 2009-2015, each involving one or more livestock species: sheep (31.7%), cattle (27.7%), goats (26.8%), horses (14.8%) and donkeys (3.2%). Models built with 2009-2013 data and validated with 2014-2015 data, showed a shared general pattern of predation probability on each species increasing with its own density and proximity to wolf packs. For some species there were positive relations with the density of other livestock species, and with habitat variables such as altitude, and land cover by shrubland and natural pastures. There was also a general pattern for predation intensity on each species increasing with its own density, while proximity to wolf packs had no significant effects. Predation intensity on goats, cattle and horses increased with the use of communal versus private pastures. Our results suggest that although predation may occur wherever wolves coexist with livestock species, high predation intensity is mainly restricted to particular areas where husbandry practices increase the vulnerability of animals, and this is where mitigation efforts should concentrate.
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Reinhardt, I., Kluth, G., Nowak, C., Szentiks, C. A., Krone, O., Ansorge, H., et al. (2019). Military training areas facilitate the recolonization of wolves in Germany. Conservation Letters, 12(3), e12635.
Abstract: Abstract Wolves (Canis lupus) are currently showing a remarkable comeback in the highly fragmented cultural landscapes of Germany. We here show that wolf numbers increased exponentially between 2000 and 2015 with an annual increase of about 36%. We demonstrate that the first territories in each newly colonized region were established over long distances from the nearest known reproducing pack on active military training areas (MTAs). We show that MTAs, rather than protected areas, served as stepping-stones for the recolonization of Germany facilitating subsequent spreading of wolf territories in the surrounding landscape. We did not find any significant difference between MTAs and protected areas with regard to habitat. One possible reason for the importance of MTAs may be their lower anthropogenic mortality rates compared to protected and other areas. To our knowledge, this is the first documented case where MTAs facilitate the recolonization of an endangered species across large areas.
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