Abstract: Wolves (Canis lupus) can kill domestic livestock resulting in intense conflicts with humans. Damage to livestock should be reduced to facilitate human-wolf coexistence and ensure positive outcomes of conservation efforts. Current knowledge on the effectiveness of livestock protection measures from wolves is limited and scattered in the literature. In this study, we compiled a dataset of 30 cases describing the application of 11 measures of protecting cattle and smaller livestock against wolves, estimated their effectiveness as a relative risk of damage, and identified the best measures for damage reduction. We found that: (1) lethal control and translocation were less effective than other measures, (2) deterrents, especially fladry which is a fence with ropes marked by hanging colored flags that sway in the wind and provide a visual warning signal, were more effective than guarding dogs; (3) deterrents, fencing, calving control and herding were very effective, but the last two measures included only one case each; and (4) protection of cattle was more effective than that of small stock (sheep and goats, or sheep only) and mixed cattle and small stock. In all of these cases, the relative risk of damage was reduced by 50-100%. Considering Germany as an example of a country with a recovering wolf population and escalating human-wolf conflicts, we suggest electric fences and electrified fladry as the most promising measures, which under suitable conditions can be accompanied by well-trained livestock guarding dogs, and the temporary use of deterrents during critical periods such as calving and lambing seasons. Further research in this field is of paramount importance to efficiently mitigate human-wolf conflicts.

Abstract: Predation on livestock is a source of human-wildlife conflicts and can undermine the conservation of large carnivores. To design effective mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the determinants of predation across livestock species, which often differ in husbandry practices, vulnerability to predators and economic value. Moreover, attention should be given to both predation occurrence and intensity, because these can have different spatial patterns and predictors. We used spatial risk modelling to quantify factors affecting wolf predation on five livestock species in Portugal. Within the 1619 parishes encompassing the entire wolf range in the country, the national wolf compensation scheme recorded 17,670 predation events in 2009-2015, each involving one or more livestock species: sheep (31.7%), cattle (27.7%), goats (26.8%), horses (14.8%) and donkeys (3.2%). Models built with 2009-2013 data and validated with 2014-2015 data, showed a shared general pattern of predation probability on each species increasing with its own density and proximity to wolf packs. For some species there were positive relations with the density of other livestock species, and with habitat variables such as altitude, and land cover by shrubland and natural pastures. There was also a general pattern for predation intensity on each species increasing with its own density, while proximity to wolf packs had no significant effects. Predation intensity on goats, cattle and horses increased with the use of communal versus private pastures. Our results suggest that although predation may occur wherever wolves coexist with livestock species, high predation intensity is mainly restricted to particular areas where husbandry practices increase the vulnerability of animals, and this is where mitigation efforts should concentrate.