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Blaisdell, A. P., Sawa, K., Leising, K. J., & Waldmann, M. R. (2006). Causal reasoning in rats. Science, 311(5763), 1020–1022.
Abstract: Empirical research with nonhuman primates appears to support the view that causal reasoning is a key cognitive faculty that divides humans from animals. The claim is that animals approximate causal learning using associative processes. The present results cast doubt on that conclusion. Rats made causal inferences in a basic task that taps into core features of causal reasoning without requiring complex physical knowledge. They derived predictions of the outcomes of interventions after passive observational learning of different kinds of causal models. These competencies cannot be explained by current associative theories but are consistent with causal Bayes net theories.
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Thompson, J. A., Brown, S. E. 2nd, Riddle, W. T., Seahorn, J. C., & Cohen, N. D. (2005). Use of a Bayesian risk-mapping technique to estimate spatial risks for mare reproductive loss syndrome in Kentucky. Am J Vet Res, 66(1), 17–20.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To estimate spatial risks associated with mare reproductive loss syndrome (MRLS) during 2001 among horses in a specific study population and partition the herd effects into those attributable to herd location and those that were spatially random and likely attributable to herd management. Animals-Pregnant broodmares from 62 farms in 7 counties in central Kentucky. PROCEDURE: Veterinarians provided the 2001 abortion incidence proportions for each farm included in the study. Farms were georeferenced and data were analyzed by use of a fully Bayesian risk-mapping technique. RESULTS: Large farm-to-farm variation in MRLS incidence proportions was identified. The farm-to-farm variation was largely attributed to spatial location rather than to spatially random herd effects. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results indicate that there are considerable data to support an ecologic cause and potential ecologic risk factors for MRLS. Veterinary practitioners with more detailed knowledge of the ecology in the 7 counties in Kentucky that were investigated may provide additional data that would assist in the deduction of the causal factor of MRLS via informal geographic information systems analyses and suggest factors for inclusion in further investigations.
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Uehara, T., Yokomizo, H., & Iwasa, Y. (2005). Mate-choice copying as Bayesian decision making. Am Nat, 165(3), 403–410.
Abstract: Mate-choice copying by females has been reported in fishes (e.g., guppies) and lekking birds. Presumably, females assess males' quality using both information from direct observation of males and information acquired by observing other females' choices. Here, we study mathematically the conditions under which mate-choice copying is advantageous on the basis of Bayesian decision theory. A female may observe the mate choice of another female, called the model female, who has performed an optimal choice based on her own judgment. The conditions required for the focal female to choose the same mate as that chosen by the model female should depend on the male's appearance to her, the reliability of her own judgment of male quality, and the reliability of the model females. When three or more females are involved, the optimal mate choice critically depends on whether multiple model females make decisions independently or they themselves copy the choices of others. If two equally reliable females choose different males, the choice of the second female, made knowing the choice of the first, should have a stronger effect on the choice of the third (focal) female. This “last-choice precedence” should be tested experimentally.
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