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Proudman, C., Pinchbeck, G., Clegg, P., & French, N. (2004). Equine welfare: risk of horses falling in the Grand National. Nature, 428(6981), 385–386.
Abstract: As in other competitive sports, the famous Grand National steeplechase, which is held at Aintree in the United Kingdom and is watched by 600 million people worldwide, sometimes results in injury. By analysing data from the past 15 Grand National races (consisting of 560 starts by horses), we are able to identify several factors that are significantly associated with failure to complete the race: no previous experience of the course and its unique obstacles, unfavourable ground conditions (too soft or too hard), a large number of runners, and the length of the odds ('starting price'). We also find that there is an increased risk of falling at the first fence and at the jump known as Becher's Brook, which has a ditch on the landing side. Our findings indicate ways in which the Grand National could be made safer for horses and illustrate how epidemiological analysis might contribute to preventing injury in competitive sport.
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Singer, E. R., Saxby, F., & French, N. P. (2003). A retrospective case-control study of horse falls in the sport of horse trials and three-day eventing. Equine Vet J, 35(2), 139–145.
Abstract: REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Serious injuries to horses and riders in horse trials (HT) and three-day events (3DE) are usually associated with falls of horses, which invariably involve falls of the riders. Many potential causes for these falls have been discussed. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this case-control study was to investigate the risk factors for horse falls on the cross-country phase of horse trials and three-day events. METHODS: Using retrospective data, significant risk factors identified with unvariable analysis (P value <0.2) were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model. Significant risk factors (P value <0.05) were included in the final model. RESULTS: It was revealed that a number of course, obstacle and rider variables were significantly and independently associated with the risk of falling. Falling was associated with obstacles sited downhill (Odds ratio [OR] 8.41) and with obstacles with ditches in front (OR = 5.77). CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between course variables and the risk of falling was characterised and showed a significantly increased risk with increasing numbers of jumps on the course and for jumping efforts later in the course. In contrast, after allowing for the total number of obstacles on the course, an increase in the total number of jumping efforts appeared to have a protective effect. A later cross-country start time was associated with a decreased risk of a horse fall. Amateur event riders were approximately 20 times more likely to fall than professional riders. POTENTIAL CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study has identified a number of risk factors associated with horse falls and highlights areas that can be altered to improve safety in cross-country competitions.
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